What if Measures were taken earlier?

Here we used SEIR model to simulate the real cases (without social distancing) to compare with the confirmed cases.

1- New York Confirmed Cases

The official # of Confirmed Cases in New York

2 - Confirmed VS. Real Cases (Simulated)

The growth of New York # of cases is quicker than what a disease spread model can give, even with a very high R0. This means there exist infected but not tested people before March 1. The # of real infected people is shown with grey bars.

6 - If Government Intervention Happened on March 1

If the New York State government had social distancing measures implemented as early as March 1, what will happen? The blue area shows the simulated # of new cases if government intervention happened on March 1, much fewer than the # of new cases without any social distancing measure. Then, the turning point would appear earlier and there would be much fewer confirmed cases.

1- New York Confirmed Cases

The official # of Confirmed Cases in New York

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